Ukraine War Update & Analysis
Strategic Shift to Defensive Warfare
In a recent report Ukrainskaya Pravda revealed that Russian forces initiated one of their largest tactical tank operations against Ukrainian positions since February 24, 2022, on the Avdiivka front. Despite deploying a significant number of tanks, the Russian mechanized troops ran into a formidable defense from Ukrainian forces, resulting in substantial losses for the attackers.
The situation unfolded on Saturday, March 30, when the Russians launched their assault near the Avdiivka front. A Ukrainian defender described the engagement: "When the smoke cleared, the Russians had left behind – on a road west of the ruins of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine – a third of their tanks.”
Leading up to the engagement, military experts noted a shift in Russian tactics. Previously, they relied heavily on dismounted infantry to advance in the area, primarily due to heavy losses incurred during the bloody mid-February assault on Avdiivka. During the battle to capture the town the Russians lost an estimated 17,000 killed, 30,000 wounded, 364 tanks, and 748 armored fighting vehicles. Recently however, Russian forces are once again employing armored vehicles, including tanks, on the Avdiivka front.
The attack in question, which involved 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles from Russia's 6th Tank Regiment, 90th Guards Tank Division, took place along the road leading from Russian-occupied Tonenke to the Ukrainian-controlled village of Umanske, approximately 5 kilometers to the west. The Russian force appeared to be a reinforced tank battalion (Russian tank battalions consist of 31 tanks) accompanied by a company of mechanized infantry (Russian mechanized infantry companies normally operate 9 infantry fighting vehicles).
Despite the overwhelming force deployed by the Russians at the smaller and lighter Ukrainian defenders (who deployed approximately 100 infantrymen per kilometer of front) they responded with grit and discipline. Ukrainian troops of the 25th Air Assault Brigade waited until the Russians were close enough to inflict maximum damage and used a combination of shoulder fired anti-tank weapons and drones to destroy 12 tanks and 8 infantry fighting vehicles, stopping the advancing convoy cold in its tracks (which retreated to the east).
Following the assault, Ukraine's Center for Defense Strategies described the ongoing fighting around Tonenke as "positional," indicating a stalemate in which neither side has made substantial progress.
Despite the current shortage of artillery ammunition, Ukrainian brigades continue to demonstrate their ability to mount a stubborn defense, exchanging territory for maximum casualties on the Russians.
Ground combat on the Avdiivka front highlights a critical turning point in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Despite facing overwhelming odds, Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their capability to repel large-scale attacks by a numerically superior aggressor, underscoring their resilience in the face of adversity. As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, the world watches closely, aware of wider implications. Currently the Czech Republic is spearheading an effort by several European nations to deliver 1.5 million artillery rounds to Ukraine this spring in anticipation of larger scale Russian offensives as the ground thaws. Today the Kyiv Independent reported that Ukraine allocated $144 million to fortify and construct an additional 2,000 kilometers of defensive lines. It would appear the Ukrainian plan is to continue defensive operations and bleed the Russians white until they have the wherewithal to launch an effective counteroffensive that will recapture occupied territory.